Zacks
0
All posts from Zacks
Zacks in Our Research. Your Success.,

China Turns a Corner, Zacks April Strategy

This month, I guide asset allocations outside the USA from a core idea. As I write on April 7th, the latest one-week ‘risk-off’ episode in non-US markets has reversed. A profit taking exercise, after a strong 7-week momentum run, ran its course.


Here are 4 reasons why the non-U.S. bull is alive and well--

  • Upside surprises to forward-looking Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) came out on Mainland China. An overall state of PMI expansion -- in both services and manufacturing -- bodes well for more than just China.
  • Weird behavior, tied to Japanese stock selling by oil dependent sovereign wealth firms, and hedging, should morph into a state of bottoming and reversal. The bad news is all priced in, and the move is overextended.
  • WTI and Brent oil prices traders are done selling and shorting down towards $35 a barrel. A short-term price bottom would be my call. Consensus still sees $50 a barrel as the 12-month target.
  • The Fed is tied down to no more than 2 rate hikes in 2016, due to the U.S. election, and due to the negative rate policies in Europe and Japan. Lower risk-free rates leave the risk-on bid alive for stocks. Where else can investors go?  Basically the fixed income cupboard is left bare by the world’s dominant monetary authorities.

Don’t read this and think the 4 non-U.S. drivers keep alive a smooth week-after-week rise in non-U.S. stocks.

The bull market should be on for non-U.S. stocks as long as we don’t have oil prices and China fall apart at the same time. But it won’t be smooth sailing all the time.


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
JOHNSON & JOHNS (JNJ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
LENOVO GRP LTD (LNVGY): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
UNILEVER PLC (UL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research