Forecast came true

Where Will The VIX Finish The Year? (Poll)
2 november

The only temporary lifts in the VIX over most of 2017 have resulted from US-North Korea tensions, but nothing has given way to a sustained rise.

Global economies are growing slowly, but steadily and in sync in the developed world. The EU, Japan, and US all more or less have monetary policies set to maximum accommodation. Rates are all the way down to zero (or slightly negative in Japan), and negative in real terms. QE is ongoing with the ECB and BOJ, while US monetary is set to 1% as an overnight lower-bound to go along with a $4.5 trillion balance sheet that is being run-off very slowly.

With heightened consumer sensitivity to prices with the proliferation of e-commerce and the way technology and globalization have kept wage growth down, and due to the flaws in which governments track unemployment rates (fails to take into account discouraged workers and those underemployed or part-time), it’s unlikely wages will increase much despite central banks’ easing efforts.

To go along with aging developed economy demographics, higher government deficits, and high levels of debt, central banks won’t be able to rein in liquidity that much. Asset prices are an important conduit of how central banks conduct monetary policy. Accordingly, the idea that these entities have a backstop on financial markets hold some level of truth.

The ECB, by running its QE program into 2019 (and keeping rates at 0% until then) is effectively saying that it wants the business cycle and bull market to continue until at least that point.

All of this has manifested in a VIX running around the 10-handle.

(Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Will the VIX remain above or below 10 by the final trading day in December?

Agree = Above 10-handle

Disagree = At or below 10-handle

5 people

Where Will The VIX Finish The Year? (Poll)

3 people
2 people

Forecast came true

VIX finished the year at 11.04