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Brent Crude Oil - Range Breakout Scenarios

The 4H Brent Crude Oil chart shows a market that is in consolidation. After finding support at 105.60, traders have kept oil price between 106.80 and 108.60. You can see that the 4H RSI is now stuck between 40 and 60, a perfect reflection of the consolidation momentum in the 4H chart. 

Brent Crude Oil 4H Chart 7/28

(click to enlarge)

A break above 108.60 opens up 
1) 38.2% retracement at 109.45. Then if price holds above 108, and confirms the breakout, we have the next target at
2) 110.50-110.65 area. This is 50% retracement and the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart. 
3) Even for an aggressive bullish outlook, we should limit the target to the 111 area. If you look at the daily chart you will see some common resistance in the 110.50-111 area.
A break below 106.80 opens up
1) the 105.60 support pivot.
2) the 105.06 pivot, 
3) and the 2014-low at 103.95.
The daily chart shows that the market is essentially sideways in 2014, though you can argue there is a slight bullish bias. With that in mind, the bearish outlook should be limited, and we should respect the 105.06 support pivot and 103.95 low on the year. In a sideways market there is a tendency to revert back towards the mean, which can be represented by the moving averages. In this case, that would be the 109-110 area. If we incorporate a slight bullish area, we should probably look for central tendency to be more towards 110 than to 109. 

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart 7/28

(click to enlarge)