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EUR/AUD - Expecting a Bullish Push

The EUR/AUD might be heading for a meaningful bullish correction, if not a bullish continuation. It is a bit early, but technical conditions are setting up.

(EUR/AUD 4h chart, 4/7)

The 4H chart shows a market that has broken into a new low, and we are seeing a pullback.The bearish run from March's high of 1.5530 is intact.

1) A break above a falling trendline will be the first violation of this bearish trend, and 2) a break above the 1.4980 high from last week would be a second sign.
3) If the RSI can break above 60, then the bearish momentum in the 4H chart is gone, and we can say the market has shifted to a sideways mode, if not bullish.

The bullish outlook fro now is limited to 1.5150 (4H 200SMA), or at most the falling channel resistance shown in the 4H and daily charts.


On the daily charts, a return toward the channel resistance will also test the 200-100 daily SMAs, which should hold as resistance if a bearish market is developing. 

The daily chart also shows bullish divergence with the oscillators, another sign the market could be setting up for a bullish swing, even if it is within the newly developing falling channel.