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Even Evercore ISI Is Now Using The "R" Word, And What Happens Next

Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: "Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don't stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk."

More details:


So what happens if the economy does, as not only Evercore but as 6 out of 6 regional Fed surveys suggest, roll over into recession?

If the economy goes into recession, S&P declines average -31%. If the economy remains in expansion, S&P corrections average -15%

Finally, it's not just the fundamentals that are concerning - the technicals are perhaps an even greater fear: