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Global Consumer Confidence Tumbles

Consumer confidence deteriorated in most countries in July.

While some of the deterioration was likely due to sentiment effects around the situation in Greece/Europe and the market volatility in China, rather than fundamental deterioration (which will be confirmed at the end of August if sentiment rebounds) it is worth paying attention to the trends in global consumer confidence, as it generally tends to reflect the prevailing global macro winds.

Indeed, if you track the trends in consumer confidence against changes in bond yields, you can see a loose relationship (which would be logical as falling demand is consistent with falling bond yields).

 

The further drop in oil would tend to be supportive for consumer confidence meaning we would probably would expect to see a rebound in the August numbers (which will be available in early September) – something to keep a close eye on as a warning sign for global demand.

Source: AMP Capital