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Residential REIT Stocks to Watch in Q1 Earnings: AVB, AIV, ESS

The first-quarter 2016 earnings of the real estate investment trust (“REIT”) sector is in full swing. Top-notch residential REITs such as Avalonbay Communities Inc. AVB, Apartment Investment and Management Company AIV and Essex Property Trust Inc. ESS are slated to release results this week.

According to a recent study by the commercial real estate services’ firm CBRE Group Inc. CBG, fundamentals of the REIT sector remains stable. Increasing household formation along with a fall in housing starts is resulting in higher demand for residential units. (Read more: Why REITs Are the Best Choice for Your 2016 Portfolio).

Our quantitative model earlier predicted earnings surprises for these stocks. However, the current data for Avalonbay Communities and Apartment Investment and Management Company does not conclusively indicate earnings beat.

Now let’s take a look at what’s in store for these S&P 500 residential REITs this quarter.

AvalonBay is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results after the market closes on Apr 27. The company has an Earnings ESP of -1.95% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

AvalonBay expects total rental revenue for established communities to grow 5.4–5.6% year over year for the first quarter of 2016. Further, AvalonBay expects funds from operation (“FFO”) per share in a range of $2.04–$2.10 and core FFO per share within $1.88–$1.94. The growth trend is expected to continue on the back of an improving demand from household formation and favorable demographics. (Read more: Is AvalonBay Poised for a Beat This Earnings Season?).



Apartment Investment & Management Co. – commonly known as Aimco – is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, 2016, after the market closes. The company has an Earnings ESP of +5.46% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Aimco’s portfolio-restructuring initiatives, conducted through property sales and reinvestment of proceeds in select apartment homes, as well as an improving balance sheet are expected to maintain its growth momentum in the quarter. For first-quarter 2016, Aimco provided pro forma FFO per share guidance in a band of 52 cents to 56 cents. Further, higher demand for apartment communities, backed by ‘echo-boomers,’ is likely to drive growth for the company. (Read more: Is Aimco Set to Beat Estimates This Earnings Season?).


Essex Property is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, 2016, after the market closes. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This also signifies a probable earnings beat.
 
Essex’s substantial exposure to the West Coast market offers the company ample scope to enhance its top line. This is because the West Coast is home to many leading technology companies which are known for making heavy investments. As such, the region experiences solid growth in jobs and personal income.

Further, in the favorable demand/supply environment, we expect rental markets to strengthen along with a better pricing power. As such, rents and occupancies are projected to trend higher in the to-be-reported quarter. (Read more: Is Essex Property Set to Beat this Earnings Season?).


Do check back on our full write-up on earnings releases of these stocks.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.


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CBRE GROUP INC (CBG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
APARTMENT INVT (AIV): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AVALONBAY CMMTY (AVB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ESSEX PPTY TR (ESS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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