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US Consumer Confidence Improves to Highest Level since Oct. 2007

According to the US Conference Board, consumer confidence has improved 3 months straight in July to 90.9 (1985 = 100), to its highest level since Oct. 2007, when the index was 92.7. 


The Present Situation Index increased to 88.3 from 86.3. According to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board, "strong job growth" has pushed consumers' assessment of the current economy. The Expectations Index improved to 92.7 from 86.4. Consumers are expecting better job prospects and overall economy health in the short-term future. 

Today's consumer confidence report suggests that the US economy should be in a strong recovery mode in the second half of the year. Tomorrow, we will first see if Q2 GDP was at par with expectations of 3.1%, after a -2.9% reading in Q1 (both annualized). Then we will see how the FOMC reacts to this GDP data - whether it will hint at a rate hike before mid-2015. The market certainly appears to be pricing in the rate hike to be before, rather than after mid-2015. We shall see if data, and the FOMC's reaction will also suggest that.