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Wholesale Inventories Have Never Been Higher Relative To Sales, Ever

Having risen to its highest level since the middle of the last two recessions, wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio remains at cycle highs at 1.31x. With wholesale sales and inventories both rising 0.5% (both more than expected), however, the absoolute difference between sales and inventories has never been higher, leaving eother major inventory liquidation ahead (or a miracle in sales). Wholesale inventories have now risen 4.7% YoY, as Sales have fallen 3.9% YoY. Finally, Auto inventories-to-sales ratio dropped very modestly (thanks to the surge in sales), but remains deep in 2008/9 crisis territory.

 

If we keep building it... they are just not coming...

 

Recession anyone?

 

 

The absolute spread between inventories and sales has never been wider...

 

Charts: Bloomberg