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Marriott Vacations (VAC) Q1 Earnings: A Surprise in Store?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, this Florida-based vacation ownership company posted a positive earnings surprise of 20.65%. In fact, the company has surpassed earnings estimates in three out of the past four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 9.02%.



Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors at Play

Marriott Vacations, one of the major players in the timeshare industry, is poised to benefit from positive industry trends on the back of competitive advantages. In 2015, the company recorded higher contract sales and rental revenues. The trend is expected to continue and impact results in the first quarter of 2016.The company has been able to maintain a steady flow of clients by offering tours to diverse locations and programs with greater outreach.

Volume per guest – sales volume for a given period divided by the number of groups toured – for Marriott Vacations has been consistently increasing (except for the quarter before last) since the beginning of 2014. We expect the positive trend to continue in the to-be-reported quarter as well backed by strong marketing initiatives.

However, the timeshare industry is extensively marketing-oriented and relies heavily on sales initiatives to attract customers. Therefore, the company’s increased marketing expenses would likely put pressure on first quarter margins. Further, the strong U.S. dollar would remain a top-line headwind.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Marriott Vacations is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for Marriott Vacations is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 98 cents.

Zacks Rank: Marriott Vacations has a Zacks Rank #3, which, when combined with 0.00% ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks in the consumer discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC with an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Brunswick Corp. BC with an Earnings ESP of +1.41% and a Zacks Rank #3.

PVH Corp. PVH, with an Earnings ESP of +0.70% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
MARRIOT VAC WW (VAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BRUNSWICK CORP (BC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PVH CORP (PVH): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AMC ENTERTAINMT (AMC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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