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EOG Resources (EOG): What's Likely This Earnings Season?

EOG Resources, Inc. EOG is set to release first-quarter 2016 financial results before the opening bell on May 5.   

Last quarter, the company posted a loss of 27 cents per share, narrower than 79 cents earned in the prior-year quarter due to weak commodity prices. The bottom line was also narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 33 cents. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing This Past Quarter

EOG Resources’ large portfolio of high-return projects and strong technical competence are its key long-term drivers. However, almost throughout first-quarter 2016, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded significantly below the $40-per-barrel level. Most importantly, WTI crude fell to the 12-year low mark of below $27 per barrel in mid February. The low levels were owing to plentiful supplies and lackluster demand. This is sure to put pressure on the company’s first-quarter profit margins.  

EOG’s total production is projected between 519.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) and 551.0 MBoe/d in the first quarter. This comes in lower than 569.5 MBoe/d output in the fourth quarter of 2015. For the full year, EOG expects total volume between 508.3 MBoe/d and 549.2 MBoe/d.

Overall, the company’s activities during the January–March period were inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter deteriorated to a loss of 87 cents from loss of 33 cents per share over the last 90 days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that EOG Resources is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: EOG Resources has an Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 87 cents.

Zacks Rank: EOG Resources carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, a 0.00% ESP complicates our surprise prediction.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the energy space that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Enable Midstream Partners, LP ENBL with an Earnings ESP of +21.05% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Bill Barrett Corp. BBG with an Earnings ESP of + 9.09% and a Zacks Rank #3.  

Spectra Energy Partners LP SEP has an Earnings ESP of + 2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
SPECTRA EGY PTR (SEP): Free Stock Analysis Report
ENABLE MIDSTRM (ENBL): Free Stock Analysis Report
EOG RES INC (EOG): Free Stock Analysis Report
BILL BARRETT CP (BBG): Free Stock Analysis Report
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