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Intrexon (XON): Stock Likely to Beat Estimates in Q1 Earnings

Intrexon Corporation XON is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 10, after the market closes. Last quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 5.56%. Will Intrexon be able to beat estimates this quarter as well? Let’s see how things have shaped up before the announcement.

Factors at Play

Intrexon is a leader in the synthetic biology field, which applies engineering principles to biological systems to enable rational, design-based control of cellular function for a specific purpose. The company follows a business model under which it commercializes its technologies through exclusive channel collaborations (ECC) and licensing agreements. Such deals provide the company with funds in the form of technology access fees, and milestones and other payments.

We believe the company will continue to recognize revenues from these sources in the first quarter of 2016 as well.

The company has been very active on striking new ECCs and expanding partnership with existing ones. Earlier this year, the company announced that it has expanded its existing partnership with Fibrocell Science, Inc. FCSC by means of a new ECC for the development of genetically modified fibroblasts to treat chronic inflammatory and degenerative diseases of the joint, including arthritis and related conditions.

Several candidates are under development not only in partnership with Fibrocell but with other companies as well. Intrexon anticipates that up to seven investigational new drugs and clinical trial initiations with the company’s existing ECC partners utilizing its technologies will take place in 2016, subject to FDA approval.

Focus will remain on the company’s performance along with other developmental updates.

Surprise History

Intrexon’s performance has been mixed so far with the company beating estimates in two of the four trailing quarters with an average beat of 619.31%.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

For the first quarter of 2016, our proven model shows that Intrexon is likely to post a narrower-than-expected loss because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +17.39%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.

Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy): Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks #1, #2 (Buy) and #3 (Hold) have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. However, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

The combination of Intrexon’s Zacks Rank #1 and +17.39% ESP makes us makes us reasonably confident of a beat this season.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Intrexon is not the only company looking up this earnings season. Here are a couple of other health care stocks that you may want to consider as our model shows that they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc JAZZ has an Earnings ESP of +6.11% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 10.

The Earnings ESP for Impax Laboratories Inc. IPXL is +8.89% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 10.

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FIBROCELL SCIEN (FCSC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
JAZZ PHARMACEUT (JAZZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
IMPAX LABORATRS (IPXL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
INTREXON CORP (XON): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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