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USD/JPY Remains Resilient After Disappointing NFP

Last Friday (5/6), we saw disappointing US jobs data. The NFP showed that 160K jobs were added in April, missing expectations of 203K. March's reading was 208K, not 213K as originally reported.

This did pressure the USD across the board but it looks like the greenback remained resilient at the end of the day. This could be a signal that there is USD-strength going into this week.

USD/JPY 1H Chart 5/8

(click to enlarge)

From the 1H chart, we can see that the USD/JPY initially fell from 107 to 106.50 after the NFP report came out. However, the market remained bullish and price came back above the 107.00 handle. The complete reversal of the initial reaction shows that the market still has underlying strength.

The pressure will be on the 107.50 handle to start the week. If price does break above 107.50, and establishing support around 107 after a pullback, we have upside risk towards 110.00. This is a relatively short-term outlook, because the medium-term bearish trend seen in the daily chart is still intact and still still be intact even if price does rebound to 110.00. Perhaps we can anticipate some choppiness and sideways action in the medium-term ahead now that price has found support in a key pivot area in 105-105.50. 

USD/JPY Daily Chart 5/8

(click to enlarge)

Now if price fails to push above 107.50 this week, or does but falls back below 107.00, we might have already entered a sideways market, If the market is sideways now, we can consider buying around 106, with a stop below 105.50. There is a bit of anticipation that USD/JPY can find a price bottom above 105.50. I should note that this is based on my long-term outlook that USD/JPY is bullish, which is based on the central bank differentiation between the very dovish BoJ, and the tentative but eventually hawkish FOMC.