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EUR/USD Threatening Bearish Continuation after Weak Data

Today, we got economic sentiment data out of the Eurozone and Germany. Since Germany is the heart of the Eurozone economy, let's focus on its data release for October: -3.6, Forecast: 0.2, Previous 6.9. 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment


(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

Business morale continues to deteriorate and the ZEW Economic Sentiment data point fell below 0 for the first time since Nov. 2012, almost 2 years ago. From the historic chart, it looks like we could be in for bumpy ride for another 2 years or so.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone in general fell to 4.1 from 14.2, missing forecasts around 7.1. 

Meanwhile, we had industrial production data for August, coming in with a -1.8% reading, down from the 0.9% print in July, and missing forecasts around a -1.5% print. 

These are all bad data points, reminding us that the ECB is pressured to provide monetary stimulus, which pressures the euro.

Looking at the EUR/USD, we can see that the reaction to the data points kept it from continuing a bullish correction. It is now testing a rising trendline and the 50-period SMA in the 4H chart. If price falls below 1.26, and the 4H RSI below 40, we are most likely in a bearish continuation scenario.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 10/14(click to enlarge)

A break below 1.26 opens up 1.25 and revives a bearish trend and thus risks further downside.