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Gold (XAU/USD) Caught Between Last Week's Trendlines

Gold is starting this week trading between last week's falling trendline resistance as well as above the rising trendline support. You can see this in the 4H chart, where you also see price above the 200-period SMA but below the 100-period and 50-period SMAs. 

(gold 4h chart 7/21)

The RSI has tagged 30 but held below 60, which is a sign that the market might be building bearish momentum. Also, last week's dip from 1345.28 to 1292.20 could have signaled exhaustion after the latest swing up to 1345.28. With the bearish bias in mind, a break below 1300, clearing last week's rising support, should open up a bearish outlook in the short-term toward the 1280 area. 1280.50 is 61.8% retracement of the June rally into July from 1240.48 to 1345.28. 

If price pushes above 1315, clearing the falling resistance, there is likely further consolidation, but we should monitor resistance in the 1325-1332 area. Resistance here can keep the bearish bias in the consolidation mode, and keep the downside risk in the short to medium term toward that 1280 handle.