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Following Up on Chipotle (CMG)

Last time we looked at Chipotle (CMG), it was in a bearish swing. This swing has not stopped, but is approaching where we anticipate for support, around 394. But I think even if CMG does find support here around 394, the upside might be limited because the mode might have shfited back to the bearish trend.

Chipotle (CMG) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Support Area:
- We talked about the specific support pivot around 394 last time.
- But we should really treat the 386-394 area as one of key support.
Upside:
- However, upside should be limited in case the market has revived its prevailing bearish trend.
- If price bounces up from the above-mentioned support area, we should limit the bullish target first to around 420. 
- Above that, the most aggressive upside should be limited to the 435-440 area, which involves key resistance factors. 
- Meanwhile, we should not expect the RSI to turn back up to 70. Instead, if the market has indeed turned bearish, the RSI should turn down when it gets into the 50-60 area. 
Trade Idea:
- For a buy, we should really wait until price settles in the 386-394 area. It would be ideal if we see a bullish divergence.
- Otherwise, we can wait for price to climb back up to 435-440 area and fade the rally back into the downtrend. This second idea potentially has a better reward to risk profile, but more important is inline with the bearish 2015-2016 trend.