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Mylan (MYL) Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Mylan N.V. MYL is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 3, before the opening bell. Last quarter, the company recorded a negative earnings surprise of 2.40%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for the first quarter of 2016.

Factors Likely to Impact Q1 Results

At the time of reporting fourth-quarter 2015 earnings results, Mylan announced its intention to acquire Meda, a leading international specialty pharmaceutical company, in a deal worth $9.9 billion. The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of the third quarter of 2016.

Mylan also provided guidance for 2016. While the company guided earnings in the range of $4.85 to $5.15 per share, total revenues were put in the range of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion. The company expects to achieve the guidance with or without contributions from Meda. Specifically, Mylan projects first-quarter earnings to be relatively flat with the year-ago period.

Mylan’s Generics segment has been performing well over the last few quarters and should continue its encouraging performance this quarter as well. Moreover, the company has seen quite a few generic launches over the past few quarters and this quarter was no exception. Newly launched products should perform well and aid revenues while acquisitions should contribute meaningfully, thereby driving segmental growth. The company expects its Generics business to be stable in 2016.

Mylan’s Specialty segment benefited in the fourth quarter of 2015 from higher volumes of EpiPen owing to the voluntary recall of Auvi-Q by Sanofi SNY and would continue to do so in the first quarter as well. On the fourth-quarter call, Mylan noted that it would continue to see an increase in volume of EpiPen through 2016. However, the company also pointed out that net payer pricing dynamics that existed throughout 2015 would also affect 2016.

On the first-quarter call, investor focus will be on the company’s performance along with updates from the Meda deal.

Surprise History

Mylan’s performance has been decent with the company beating earnings estimates on two occasions, while posting in line results in one. Overall, the company has delivered an average positive surprise of 1.46%.


Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Mylan is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to likely post an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -2.67%.

Zacks Rank: Mylan’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of the ESP but when combined with a negative ESP makes a surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are a couple of health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Genocea Biosciences, Inc. GNCA has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 5.

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AGIO has an Earnings ESP of +30.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 5.

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AGIOS PHARMACT (AGIO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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