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AUD/CAD Possibly Pivoting into a Bullish Outlook

AUD/CAD has been in an interesting technical development. For most of 2014, it has been choppy but bearish. The dail RSI has been below 60, nad price has been for the most part under the 200-day SMA. Highs and Lows were also edging down. 

AUD/CAD Daily Chart 8/13
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that since July, the pattern of price action has changed. It stopped making lower lows and highs. Price has broken above the 200-day SMA and the RSI has cleared 60. 

Now, these are signs that the bearish outlook is likely over. But we don't know if AUD/CAD will turn bullish or be choppy and remain sideways. Perhaps, it will be bullish, but very choppy? What ever the future might hold, the current price action does suggest some bullish component in the outlook. The fact that price rejected a dip below 0.95 and rebounded sharply during the 8/12-8/13 sessions suggests that bulls are taking over. Clearing above 0.9650 might be another signal that will put the 0.9750 level back in play. Above that, the highs around 0.9850 would be the next target. Because of the existing choppiness, we should probably limit the bullish outlook for each attempt.

AUD/CAD 1H Chart 8/13
(click to enlarge) 

The 1H AUD/CAD chart shows the pair rebounding from around 0.9480 this week after a few sessions of bearish pullback. Today, price has broken above a falling trendline and completed a price bottom. If the medium-term outlook seen in the daily chart is indeed turning bullish, the short-term bullish reversal we are seeing at the moment might be the pivot into this mode. Now, if price falls but holds above 0.9575, we should still be bullish, especially if the 1H RSI holds above 40 on a subsequent dip. 

Bottomline: I think there are signs of a bullish shift, so I am getting read for an attempt towards at least 0.9850 in the short to medium-term.