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Gold - 38.2% Retracement and a Support Pivot

In 2014, Gold has been bullish, but this week's price action seems to be shifting that outlook. 


(gold 4H chart)

XAU/USD (gold)
1) is having the biggest downswing of 2014
2) Broke the rising channel support that comes up fro 1182 Dec 2013 low.
3) Broke below the 200-4H SMA for the first time since clearing above it in January.
4) The RSI dipped below 30 for the first time in 2014 - This might indicate some near-term oversold condition, but suggests an overall bearish development.

Retracement and pivot
The near-term oversold condition is combined with bullish divergence in the RSI as price tags support pivot from February and 1305. This is also around the 38.2% retracement of 1311. I can see some buyers here down to the 1300 handle, but the upside might be limited for now as the market is at least in a period of sideways consolidation