WASHINGTON, D.C. (
The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise — like the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. — would likely cause the stock market
There is always a great deal of insight in the International Monetary Fund’s semiannual economic outlook, which is based on detailed data from around the world. And, because the latest version was published in early October, it is particularly relevant. (I was previously the IMF’s chief economist and oversaw the forecasting process, but I left that position in August 2008.)
Table 1.1 of the Fund’s
The most obvious dark cloud on the global horizon is Europe. The British issues are not helping, but the deeper issues continue to be related to the eurozone itself (Britain never adopted...