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Chicago PMI Soars To Highest Since January With 7-Sigma Beat On Huge Inventory Build

Having spent most of 2015 below the 50 (deteriorating) level, Chicago PMI bounced incredibly hard in October from 48.7 to 56.2. This is the highest level since January, the biggest MoM jump since August 2014, and above even the highest economist estimate (7 standard deviations above the median). A huge surge in inventories (back above 60) drove the surprising shift, along with a rise in new orders (even as employment tumbled) but as MNI reports, in line with weaker Order Backlogs, other metrics of the report caution against reading too much into the latest surge in demand.  Supplier Delivery times continued to shorten, a phenomena that  typically occurs when demand is low.

Biggest MoM jump in 14 months...

 

Beats Expectations... by 7 Standasrd deviations - Looks right!!!

 

A surge in inventories was the biggest driver...

INVENTORIES INCREASE SHARPLY TO ABOVE 60

 

Stocks of finished goods rose to above 60 as some companies intentionally built stocks as demand increased and in an effort to be prepared for the new cold weather selling season.

 

Concerns now rest with being over-inventoried as winter is predicted to be mild, purchasers said.

but apart from that things looked less exuberant...

Elsewhere, Prices Paid contracted for the third consecutive momth, remaining very close to September's more than six-year low year low as commodity prices remained depressed, particularly crude oil during the month.

 

In line with weaker Order Backlogs, other metrics of the report caution against reading too much into the latest surge in demand. Supplier Delivery times continued to shorten, a phenomena that typically occurs when demand is low.

Especially jobs - Chicago PMI employment: down 1.7 to 50.6, the lowest since August. "Commentary suggests ... heavy reliance on temporary workers. "

Employment broke a recent three month winning streak, falling 1.7 to 50.6, the lowest since August. Commentary from purchasers continued to suggest the workforce can easily be expanded or contracted due to heavy reliance on temporary workers. Ongoing commentary suggests difficulty in acquiring qualified workers.

Charts: Bloomberg