Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
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Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Buy Whirlpool's Straddles Before The Earnings Call Today

Whirlpool Corporation (WHR), a manufacturer and marketer of home appliances, which produces goods in approximately 15 countries and markets products around the world under various brand names, is reporting earnings today right after the market opening:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The company beat earnings estimates in 50% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming in the rest of time, and has shown swift movements in the market price of the stock:

The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

On the other hand, market data show that the short-term options are relatively cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The weekly straddles (options with a strike price of $182.50) are worth around 4.9% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been just as volatile on a weekly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a weekly standard deviation of 4.4% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit more than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 4.9%, while it also includes volatility from the earnings event today. I therefore see signs of some undervaluation in these options.

What do you think of this trade?