Nick Nasad
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A Break in the CAD-Oil Continuum

When the heck did USD/CAD and oil start moving with a positive correlation?

As most forex traders have learned over the years one cross-market correlation is that between the CAD and oil (which means a negative correlations between the
USD/CAD and oil prices). However, during the last 3 weeks this tried and true correlation has flipped.

Three weeks ago, Crude Oil prices fell from around 108 down to 104, but the USD/CAD moved in favor of the USD/CAD (strange). Last week, as oil price surged back higher, the USD/CAD followed (doubley strange), and this week, while the first half of the week looked like we returned back to the norm with the USD/CAD up and oil down, today we have a big slide in both (hrumph).

Meanwhile, if we look at the correlation between the USD and CAD, we see that the two have been moving much more in sync of late (check out the 4H view of U/J and C/J for instance).

This is all quite peculiar, and while I do expect the dominant correlation between these 2 assets to return soon, for now the CAD seems to be hitched much more to the USD wagon (when considering other CAD crosses of course) than it is to its sweet black dominant export.

- Nick