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Are Video Game Releases An Opportunity For Traders?

This week, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. TTWO 0.13% officially announced the highly-anticipated “Red Dead Redemption 2,” which is now scheduled for release in fall of 2017. “Red Dead Redemption” was a huge hit for Take-Two, selling more than 15 million copies and winning a number of awards.

The market certainly seems optimistic about the new “Red Dead” installment. So far this week, Take-Two’s stock is up 3.9 percent.

But what (if anything) can shareholders expect from the stock when “Red Dead Redemption 2” actually hits shelves next year? Benzinga looked back at how the share prices of Take-Two, Nintendo Co., Ltd (ADR) NTDOY 5.37%, Electronic Arts Inc. EA 0.04% and Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI 0.1% have performed in the weeks following the releases of some of the biggest video games of the past 15 years.

These games include names such as:

  • “Tetris.”
  • “Wii Sports.”
  • “Grand Theft Auto 5.”
  • “Mario Kart Wii.”
  • “Wii Sports Resort.”
  • “New Super Mario Bros. Wii.”
  • “Diablo III.”
  • “Grand Theft Auto San Andreas.”
  • “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.”
  • “Call of Duty: Black Ops.”

Surprisingly, the market seems to have often seen the release of these games as a “sell the news” event. The stocks of the companies that have produced these hit games have averaged a 1.1 percent decline in the first week following their releases. After a month, the stocks have produced only a modest gain of 0.2 percent overall.

On the other hand, traders looking for an uptick in volatility have gotten plenty of trading opportunities. In terms of magnitude alone, the stocks have averaged a 4.3 percent one-week move and a 6.4 percent one-month move following game releases.

It’s tough to predict whether or not Take-Two’s stock will go up or down in the weeks following the “Red Dead Redemption 2” release next year. However, if history is any indication, the stock may make a big move in one direction or the other.

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