Nick Nasad
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GBP/USD - Climbs Over 61.8% Retrace of Late August Fall

The Pound has been on a 5-session rally as it continues to incorporate better than expected data - including another round of very strong manufacturing and services PMI reports. If data remains this strong it will put pressure on the BOE's timetable for raising rates - aka, they will have to do so earlier than their current timeline.

That macro picture is an overriding theme, and we of course also have important themes over US tapering (positive for USD?), some global growth optimism (negative for USD), and then still concerns over Syria.

In any case, in the short term, the charts are showing us some bullish momentum.

  • I was watching the 1.56 area as an important support, both as a horizontal pivot going back to August 26th, as well as the 61.8% retracement of the downswing from 1.5715 to 1.5430.
  • Having breached this level yesterday, we retested it overnight, saw price hold at the 55-EMA, and move back above that level.
  • We retested the support once again in NY trading and it continues to hold.
  • If that support continues to hold, then the likelihood of a run towards 1.5715 highs increases.
  • However, if it doesn't hold then we may be looking at the end of the recent rally, especially if it comes off the back of a strong NFP report which ushers in certainty around a September Fed tapering.

- Nick