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Gold's Rally Stalls as China's GDP Slows

Gold broke a flag pattern today, signaling extension to October's bullish trend. However, price stalled below last week's high around 1250. The relevant risk event was China's Q3 GDP, which came in at 7.3% compared to Q3 2013. This was near the average forecast around 7.2% but slid below a the Q2 reading of 7.5%. Growth has been falling since 2010. 


(click to enlarge; source: forexfactory.com)

Now gold sometimes gains on risk aversion, but we didn't have that today. The news was data point was essentially in the expected range. 

Still gold has a bullish outlook in the 1H chart.(Gold 1H Chart 10/21)

Based on the moving averages and the RSI, as well as the fact that price broke above a flag pattern, gold is bullish to start the week. A break below 1230 can shift it to bearish. Also, a hold above 1240 would be a big confirmation for the bullish outlook.