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EURJPY: Shy break of the symmetrical triangle

The European Central Bank (ECB) managed to move financial markets last despite leaving the monetary policy unchanged. ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank was weighing the need for more monetary stimulus and was ready to act at its December meeting. The euro depreciated.

Draghi also said that some members of the bank’s policy-making council had raised the possibility of acting immediately rather than waiting.

Japanese Finance Minister said last week that it was unlikely the central bank would expand easing now. By the end of last week he said that any decision on monetary policy, and whether to expand monetary stimulus, should be left to Kuroda and the Japanese bank.

Monetary policy alone isn’t enough for inflation to reach the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%, according to Japan’s finance minister.

In the two and a half years since Haruhiko Kuroda became Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor, inflation in Japan hit a peak of 1.5% before dropping back below 0% in August.  Although Kuroda has repeatedly said he sees prices rising again to meet the target next year, expectations are high for the bank to add to stimulus at its meeting this week.

Since the beginning of the year the EURJPY fell 7.8% and changed phase going from bullish to a distribution phase. The pair initially rose last week but found enough selling pressure at 136.22 to give back all of its gains and closed in the red near the low of the week. Stochastic in showing bearish momentum and is below the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to a weekly support at 128.57 on a break below previous week low at 133.37 (scenario 1) or a break above previous week high at 136.38 could throw the pair to a weekly resistance at 139.73 (scenario 2).