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GBP/JPY Poised to Reunite with its 2015-Lows

The GBP/JPY has flattened the rally in February, and has retreated in March. The 4H chart below shows the bull run from around 175.50 up to 185. Then a rounded top was formed over several weeks.

GBP/JPY 4H Chart 3/13

(click to enlarge)

After the rounded top, GBP/JPY fell but rebounded off of the 200-period SMA, and price tested the resolve of the price top. Price held below 184 and for the most part held below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs. These are signs that bears are in control 

The RSI reading tagged 30, popped up to 60 and then retreated again back below 30, a sign of bearish momentum developing.

With the price top confirmed, GBP/JPY has the 175.50 low on the year in sight.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 3/13

(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows a market that has been bullish in 2014, but has been consolidating since the end of the year. The price action in January and February maintained some bullish bias because it held above the 200-day SMA, and bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of that Oct-Dec rally.

However, the bullish continuation was rejected and the market remains in consolidation. There are several consolidation/correction scenarios.

If the market is in a mode of consolidation or bearish consolidation, we might see an ABC correction. In this scenario, where C=A in length, the projection would target the 171 handle.

A less aggressive target would be the 175.50-176 lows on the year.

An even more conservative outlook would at least target the 178 handle, where the 200-day SMA resides. If price does hold above 178, it means GBP/JPy is in more of a sideways consolidation mode than a bearish correction mode.