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TrimTabs Showed Better Jobs Report for August Than ADP

As economists and investors are looking for any signs of life or death in the jobs market, as well as for rate hike ammunition, the TrimTabs estimate of U.S. jobs added might be viewed closer after ADP delivered a weak reading Wednesday morning. TrimTabs estimated that the U.S. economy added some 241,000 jobs during August.

This would be handily better than the 190,000 private sector payrolls projected by ADP. TrimTabs noted that its jobs gains measured 200,000 or more for the 11 time in the past 12 months. Still, if you are looking for a trajectory rather than an absolute, July’s figure from TrimTabs was 268,000.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on its analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 142 million U.S. workers subject to withholding. TrimTabs explained that growth in income tax withholdings has held steady for the past two months.

The report said:

It’s too early to tell how much impact the turmoil in emerging economies and financial markets is having on the U.S. economy. What we do know is that U.S. job growth has held up well so far. … Our key indicators are sending more positive signals about the recent past than about the future. While withholdings, unemployment claims, and non-manufacturing data point to a brisk expansion, our proprietary macroeconomic index and key credit indicators are signaling slower growth ahead. Given the recent market turmoil, we don’t expect the Fed to raise rates before December.

As a reminder, here are the formal expectations for the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on Friday morning: The Wall Street Journal is forecasting 220,000 for August in the nonfarm report, and Bloomberg currently has the consensus estimate at 223,000. The private sector payrolls report is expected to show a gain of 211,000 for August, and the official unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.2% in August from 5.3% in July.

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By Jon C. Ogg