Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Bitcoin in Bearish Continuation Breakout for the ST

Bitcoin has shown that it is still bearish after retreating from the 2015-highs around 310-320. It might not be as bearish as it was in 2014, but at least in the short-term, the pair does seem to have bearish bias after a couple months of a strong rally.

The 4H Chart shows that after retreating from just under 320 to about 270, the virtual currency started to consolidate. After some back and forth swings it is now trading below the 270 consolidation range support. 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 8/8

(click to enlarge)

The break below 270 is a bearish continuation signal in the short-term. Price is now below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs), while the RSI has tagged 30, held below 60 and is now breaking below 30 again. This shows bearish continuation and development of bearish momentum.

Now, the first level to look for support as the 4H RSI dips to oversold area is the 260-265 area. However, if the market is bearish, a pullback should not exceed 285. In fact we should see resistance around 280 or lower if bitcoin is really in a short-term bearish mode. If price stars to hold above 285, we should consider a bullish attempt to threaten the 310-320 highs again. 

Then, to the downside, below 260, we should see some support around 250, which is another key support/resistance pivot. 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart 8/8
(click to enlarge)

Before we assess bitcoin as bearish in the medium-term, let's first respect the 250 area. In the daily chart we can also see that around 250, there will be a rising trendline, and the 100- and 200-day SMAs. This area is like the last line of defense for the bullish scenario in the medium-term. If we do see a significant bounce off of 250, the 310-320 highs on the year would be back in sight. A bounce off of 250 could be a major clue that bulls are starting to take control. A bounce off of the 200- and 100-day SMAs would also be a "bullish slingshot" signal.

Only a break below 250 should open up a bearish outlook for the medium-term, which opens up the lows on the year around 155.