The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) voted to maintain its official cash rate at 1.50%. The statement given by RBA governor Philip Lowes was very similar to that given at the October meeting. The prospect of further rate cut by the RBA appears to be moving further and further. On the other hand, the continuing concern over of a soft labor market and weak core inflation numbers keep the rate cut on the table.
According to Financial Times, the market is indeed fading out the prospect of further ate cut. "At least for today, the market is putting the prospect of further rate cuts aside, and the Australian dollar is off to the races in more than once sense. The currency is up 0.5 per cent at $0.7645, making it the best performer in Asia by a furlong." (Financial Times)
Bullish continuation attempt:
- The AUD/USD has been rallying in a rising channel since the beginning of the year.
- However, you can also argue that it was really just a bullish swing from January through April.
- After that swing brought AUD/USD to 0.7833, price has been consolidating.
- Recently, we have seen price hold under 0.7735-0.7750 area.
- But at the same time, the market has been holding the pair above a rising channel, as well as keep price above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
- Also note that the RSI held above 40 for the most part, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing bullish momentum, although the bullish momentum since June has been weak.
- The market's reaction to the RBA statement will continue to pressure the 0.7735-0.7750 area for AUD/USD.
- A break above 0.7750 would be part of a bullish continuation attempt that would likely also test the 0.7833 high with risk of breaking even higher.
- Now, the bullish scenario will have a tough time materializing if the Fed announces a rate hike tomorrow (11/2), or even hints at a rate hike in December.
- In this scenario, we should anticipate a dip in the AUD/USD.
- If AUD/USD falls below 0.7550, we should anticipate further decline towarsd 0.7450, a pivot at 0.7385, and eventually the May support pivot around 0.7150.