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AUD/USD Turning Bearish after an Outside Bar

The AUD/USD has been trying to build a price bottom throughout February, holding above the low of the year around 0.7626. It ranged between that low, and resistance around 0.7850. last week, there was a breakout above 0.7850, but price stalled at 0.79 and retreated. Let's take a look at the price action and assess whether the price bottom is invalidated.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 3/2
(click to enlarge)

In the 4H chart, we can see that after the bullish breakout, price was held under 0.79 and the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). This shows initial failure of establishing the price bottom, especially as price falls back below 0.78 and the other SMAs, as well as a rising speedline. 

An inability to falls below 0.7750 can be a sign that bulls are in control in the short-term, otherwise, we might be looking at a bearish continuation.

When we look at the daily chart, we see more evidence that the price bottom might be a failure. At least, it looks like the market wants to test the resolve of the price bottom.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 3/2
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that the "price bottom" was nothing more than a period of consolidation. A falling trendline from September's high around 0.94 came into play. 

There was a bearish outside bar, which signals bearish continuation .Price remained below the 50-day SMA. The RSI held below 60, and for the most part below 50. This shows that although we had some short to medium-term consolidation, the bias in the medium to long-term is still bearish for AUD/USD.

With the bearish conditions, the bearish outside bar could be a trigger for further bearish continuation, which opens up the 0.7626 low on the year, with risk of extending lower.