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EUR/USD Range within Range with Bearish Bias

The EUR/USD has been consolidating between the low on the year at 1.11 and a high in February of 1.1533. Within this range, there is another smaller range with support at 1.1270, and resistance at and just above 1.1423. 

EUR/USD 4H Chart 2/20
(click to enlarge)

With the recently failed attempts to break to the upside, EUR/USD looks poised to break down the range within range. If it does fall below 1.1270, then the 1.11 low will be in sight, with risk of EUR/USD breaking even lower. 

What does the long-term chart tell us?

EUR/USD Monthly Chart 
(click to enlarge)

The monthly chart shows that the market has been in a bearish correction since the 2001-2008 secular bull market. Price has retreated to 61.8% retracement of this rally. When we look at the dip from 1.40 to 1.11, we can see that almost every month was a down month, and January was the strongest one so far, which could mean exhaustion, but only if we see a tentative month like February followed by a strong month in March.

Otherwise, the January dip carries with it bearish momentum that has further downside risk despite the RSI being in oversold territory. Analysts have pointed parity (1.00) as a possible target in 2015. Let's first look for that break below 1.1270 to expose 1.11. Then below 1.11, the 1.10 handle comes into play.