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Will Archer Daniels (ADM) Q1 Earnings Weigh on the Stock?

Archer Daniels Midland Company ADM is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 3, before the opening bell. In the last quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.2%. In fact, Archer Daniels has underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 5.2% over the past four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors Influencing this Quarter

Archer Daniels has been in trouble for quite some time due to soft sales at most of its operating segments. The company’s top line has lagged estimates for nine straight quarters now. Last quarter, sales were impacted by adverse market conditions and ongoing currency headwinds. The bottom line on the other hand bore the brunt of dismal sales and weak margins across the U.S. agricultural export sector, the U.S. ethanol industry and the soybean crushing industry worldwide that were adversely impacted by global dynamics. These trends, which were prevalent in 2015, are likely to persist in 2016 as well, thus making us apprehensive of the upcoming results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Archer Daniels is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for Archer Daniels is currently 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 43 cents.

Zacks Rank: Archer Daniels carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Central Garden & Pet Company CENT, expected to release earnings on May 3, 2016, has an Earnings ESP of +3.39% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN, scheduled to release earnings on May 18, 2016, has an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The Home Depot, Inc. HD, scheduled to release earnings on May 17, 2016, has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
HOME DEPOT (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CENTRAL GARDEN (CENT): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
URBAN OUTFITTER (URBN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ARCHER DANIELS (ADM): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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