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Boston Properties (BXP) Q1 Earnings: What is in Store?

Real estate investment trust (“REIT”) Boston Properties Inc. BXP is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 26, after the market closes. Last quarter, the company had delivered a positive surprise of 0.79%.

In the trailing four quarters, Boston Properties reported an average positive surprise of 2.70%.  In fact, the stock beat the estimates on all the four occasions.

Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.59.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Boston Properties owns and develops Class A office real estate in the U.S.  The company also operates retail and residential properties along with a hotel. According to a report by CBRE Group, Inc. CBG, though the office market growth in the U.S. continued, the pace slowed in first-quarter 2016. Volatility in the market adversely affected the hiring activities during the quarter. All these factors should affect the results of Boston Properties.

Boston Properties boasts a diversified tenant base, which includes several bellwethers. Over the last five years, the company recorded an annual compound revenue growth rate of 9.67%. Given the company’s improving core operations, we expect a steady rental revenue growth in the to-be-reported quarter. Moreover, per the CBRE Group, steady growth in rent persisted during the quarter too.

During the quarter, Boston Properties’ performance was inadequate to gain analysts' confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged at $1.59 over the last seven days.
 

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Boston Properties will beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at $1.59 respectively, which translate into an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Boston Properties’ Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP as well to be confident about an earnings surprise.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to report a positive surprise this quarter:

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release results on May 2.

Vornado Realty Trust VNO has an Earnings ESP of +4.03% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

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CBRE GROUP INC (CBG): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
TAUBMAN CENTERS (TCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BOSTON PPTYS (BXP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
VORNADO RLTY TR (VNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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