Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

NZD/USD - Potential Head and Shoulder Pattern Spotted

NZD/USD has been rallying in February from a low on the year at 0.7176 to last week's high at 0.7573. The 1H chart below shows the swing from 0.7313 to 0.7573. 

NZD/USD 1H Chart 2/23

(click to enlarge)

While the uptrend is still technically in play, we are seeing a potential head and shoulders in development. The head is at 0.7573 and the shoulders are around 0.7550. The neckline is around 0.75 so a break below this would complete the H&S pattern and signal a reversal to the uptrend in the 1H chart. If the RSI also clears below 40, it would show loss of the prevailing bullish momentum. 

There is a support/resistance pivot around 0.7480, which is also where the 200-period SMA resides. If price can bounce off of this level and climb back above 0.7540, the head and shoulders would look shaky, and the bullish outlook would still be favored.

On the other hand if the H&S is respected as a resistance zone, and price starts to clearly hold below the shoulders, there would be downside risk toward the next support levels, which we can see in the 4H chart.

NZD/USD 4H Chart 2/23

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that there is also support around 0.7440-0.7450, an area that involves a previous resistance and is reinforced by a rising trendline. A break below 0.7440 then opens up the 0.7320-0.7340 support area before exposing the 0.7176 low on the year.

There is also risk of extending below 0.7176 towards 0.71 because the prevailing downtrend would still be in play.

NZD/USD Daily Chart 2/23

(click to enlarge)

In the daily chart, we an see that the February uptrend can be interpreted as a rising wedge, correction pattern. A break below the wedge support (around 0.7440), would signal bearish continuation.