Nick Nasad
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EUR/USD - After 4-Session Downswing Is Retrace Complete?

As we move past the middle of the week, I want to have a look at the EUR/USD:

While we remain within a short-term downtrend and the EUR/USD has whittled away its gains from the first 5 trading sessions in August, we do test an important support level at the 1.3235 area. We still remain confined with the channel resistance level, so there isn't much here to go on on its own (and tapering expectations may be helping the USD) I have some intuition that we may see a bounce here and a resumption of the aforementioned up-move.

Mainly, the EUR seems to be on its own right now in terms of being unable to press its advantage against the USD (in today's session) and the data was positive this week from Europe itself (the ZEW survey and 2Q GDP readings - a
"sell the news" reaction perhaps?) and if we look at the equity space for clues the EUR50 has been moving higher in a straight line while US and Japanese equities have had some troubles of late.

What I'm not doing is trying to predict the future or know what's going to happen next, but intuition is important and should be investigated. Therefore, what I would like to see is a break of channel resistance, a push above the pivots from Wednesday's session (1.3269 and 1.3278). While we will have the hourly moving average as well as other pivots in the way, those first 2 signals can give the pair a chance to move away from its rather heavily oversold levels in the RSI to something more neutral. IF the pair slices through the 1.3237/3 support area however, then my intuition can go kick rocks.

- Nick