Max Grigoryev
1
All posts from Max Grigoryev
Max Grigoryev in Fundamentality,

FOXA: Risky Options Strategy

21st Century Fox release Q4 FY2016 earnings after the closing bell today. It's definitely worth watching earnings because after the most recent earnings call the stock wasn't volatile at all - it moved up just 4c. However, after the Q2 FY2014 results announcement the company lost almost 8% of its market cap. Moreover, their previous annual earnings call dropped the stock price by more than 10%. So I think that FOXA could surprise us this time as well. 

11 analysts recommend to buy FOXA, 13 analysts have outperform rating. Recommendations look positive on the upcoming earnings. EPS consensus is in line with Q4'15 EPS at .37c:

However, analysts are slightly up on revenue:

Source: Financial Times

The company's options aren't very expensive, therefore we could consider buying a straddle. It wouldn't cost us a lot, but in case of volatility jump, we can get a hefty return. My suggestion is to work with 27 or 28 strike, it depends whether you are rather positive on stock or negative. The options chain is the following:

As you can see, traders aren't very active on FOXA's options so far, but it means that we have a good chance to get cheap options. I consider buying 27 call and put options expiring August 5. The initial outlay in this case will be:

I'm going to spend around a $100 on this strategy, but if the stock moves more than 4.5%, I will start earning money. If you want to hedge, you can definitely sell some OTM options and get a certain compensation. For example, you can sell 25.5 put for 19c per contract and 28.5 call for 20c per contract. You will most likely get around 40c per contract, or 40% of your initial outlay. In this case you will limit your profits. If you decide not to hedge, your strategy will have the following P&L profile:

As you can see from this table, you will get a tasty 20% return if the stock goes higher than $28.2 or lower than $25.8. It doesn't seem unrealistic, but I'd better recommend do a hedge. As I've mentioned before FOXA didn't move significantly after the most recent earnings call because their EPS met the analysts estimates as well as top-line revenue.