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What's in Store for Gogo Inc. (GOGO) this Earnings Season?

Gogo Inc. GOGO, the leading in-flight connectivity provider, is slated to release first-quarter 2016 results on May 6. Last quarter, Gogo delivered a negative earnings surprise of 7.50%. However, the company has posted an average positive earnings surprise of 3.33% over the past four quarters. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Gogo boasts a dominant position among in-flight Wi-Fi service providers especially in its North America Commercial Aviation business. Also, Gogo’s onboard Internet connectivity services coupled with its innovative value-added services are likely to drive the top line going ahead.

The company’s 2Ku service is gaining traction and can become a key growth driver going ahead. 2Ku is Gogo’s next generation satellite technology, which can offer peak speeds of over 70 Mbps to the aircraft, nearly 20 times the bandwidth provided by its first generation Air to Ground solution in the U.S. With ATG getting highly congested, Gogo is trying to divert traffic to its 2Ku based satellite service. In the fourth quarter, the company said it has 2Ku backlog of 800 aircrafts.  It plans to incorporate 2Ku technology in 75 planes in 2016 and increase the number fourfold by 2017. Also, the company launched its Gogo Biz 4G, a major advance in broadband connectivity, last year and expects shipments to start in 2017.

However, despite its strength, Gogo’s business is not immune to competition and the resultant pricing pressure from peers like ViaSat Inc. In addition, higher operating expenses due to increased investment in the Commercial Aviation – Rest of World segment remain a concern.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Gogo is likely to beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Gogo's Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 41 cents.

Zacks Rank: Gogo carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few companies, which, as our model shows, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

ACI Worldwide, Inc. ACIW has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. International Ltd. CTRP has an Earnings ESP of +11.43% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Agilent Technologies, Inc. A has an Earnings ESP of +2.56% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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CTRIP.COM INTL (CTRP): Free Stock Analysis Report
ACI WORLDWIDE (ACIW): Free Stock Analysis Report
AGILENT TECH (A): Free Stock Analysis Report
GOGO INC (GOGO): Free Stock Analysis Report
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