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The Kiwi Trading at Rising Trendline after FOMC and NZ GDP

First let's look at the NZD/USD in the weekly chart. It is challenging a triangle resistance. There was also a prevailing bullish swing before the triangle. In the short-term however, this resistance could be coming into play.


(NZD/USD Weekly Chart)

The FOMC statement opened the flood gate for USD-bulls and even the mighty NZD/USD slid. Also, NZ GDP for Q4 2013 came out at 0.9% while the Q3 data was revised down from 1.4% to 1.2%. 

In the 4H chart below, you saw the Kiwi get beat up. 


(NZD/USD 4H Chart)

The Kiwi is now at the crossroad. Which will the market break, the weekly triangle resistance or 4H rising trendline. 

Based on the 4H chart, I think price action is still bullish, but a strong break below 0.85 can turn it neutral. Then if we see the market put in a top below the triangle resistance, we can consider a more bearish outlook for the Kiwi. For now, it is bullish, and maybe turning slightly neutral.

A break above 0.8550, near the 3/20 session high, could revive the bullish outlook.