Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Hormel Foods (HRL) Could be Rounding Out a Bottom

Hormel Foods (HRL) Could be a candidate for buying-on-a dip because of a potential price bottom. At least, if we are wrong, price is near the support area, so we can work with a decent reward to risk.

Hormel Foods (HRL) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Consolidation Triangle:
- Hormel Foods reached a price just above 45.50 in February 2016 before it started to retreat.
- Today, we can see that it has been in a bearish correction, which has flattened into something like a triangle.
- Now, the descending triangle itself suggests a sleight bearish bias, especially with price trading below the 200- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
- But there is also some clues a bullish bias is building. 
Bullish Bias:
- To start, we saw the RSI push to 70 in February, but hold above 30 in the subsequent dip. This shows a lack of bearish momentum.
- Price also held above 34 instead of dipping to the December 2016 low around 33.15.
- Price action last week was strong. 
Get ready for a dip:
- After hour trading before the 5/23 session is pulling HRL lower according to, who also reported that the company declared a 17 cent quarterly divdidendd on the firms common stock
- If we do see a dip, let's examine the buy-on-a-dip strategy.
Reward to Risk:
- Let's examine the R:R in for 2 different targets. 1) to 36.50 (outlook within the bearish scenario), 2) 38.00 (a conservative bullish outlook). I think we should limit the bullish outlook to 40.00, but we would use a less "optimistic" target. 
1) Entry: 34.50, Target 36.50, Stop 33.50. If price falls to 33.50, I would wait for it to continue towards the 30.15 and 30.00 area. I would also look for a bullish divergence between price and the RSI. 
- Within this scenario, the R:R is 2:1, which is satisfactory.
2) Entry: 34.50, Target: 38, Stop: 33.50
- Within this scenario, the R:R is 3.5:1, which is decent.
Some will prefer to wait for price to come down towards 33.00, which would improve the reward to risk greatly. However, at this time, the fact that price has found support at 34.00 creates the potential that price is already rounding a bottom. Traders will have to always juggle with opportunity cost and potential for better reward to risk. In this case, because of a few price action clues, I would prefer to act sooner than later .