Alex Cho
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Stick with Facebook and Google as Currency Impact Remains Minimal from Brexit

So, in an earlier article I talked about the broad-industry trends when pertaining to changes in forecast assumptions for some of the major digital ad-intelligence firms when pertaining specifically to the UK. But, when looking at the UK exposure and the F/X impact, it also seems fairly minimal across the Internet space. At least according to UBS research, which is why I feel fairly confident in my digital advertising recommendations, which involve Alphabet, Facebook and Yelp.com.

Source: UBS AG

According to Eric Sheridan (one of the best internet analysts), it’s likely that the F/X exposure for UK implies a 0.2% drop in FY’16 for FB and GOOG specifically, with more of the impact leaning towards FY’17. The impact in FY’17 is due to the duration of currency exposure, as the dollar was relatively weak for 1H’16 up until Brexit. That being the case, FY’17 impact for both Facebook and Google implies currency impact of -.04%, which isn’t too significant and shouldn’t materially alter assumption on revenue/earnings going forward. That being the case, this is implicit of a 4.4% decline in F/X, which implies that the UBS analyst is anticipating some recovery in recent F/X volatility.

I’m not exactly certain if the GBP/USD will recover by 500 basis points in the next 18-months, but assuming there’s some value recovery in the F/X markets, the currency adjustments will get less severe. The recent volatility in markets is mostly due to the F/X movements as a broadly weighted baskets as opposed to a fundamental argument pertaining to macro or over-exposure to Europe as many of the large cap Internet stocks have diverse geographic sales mix.

I continue to reiterate my positive recommendations on Google, Facebook and Yelp. I believe these Internet names will exhibit stronger value recovery if the S&P 500 were to recover in the next 6-months (which is highly probable).