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Gold - Double Top vs. Support Factors

Gold has been bullish so far in 2015, rallying from 1168 to 1307 last week before stalling. The 4H chart shows that gold is consolidating sideways, and could have completed a double bottom after the 1305-1307 area held as support twice. 

Gold 4H Chart 1/26


The 4H chart warms us from jumping on the bearish outlook until some key support factors are broken.
1) A rising trendline from 1168
2) the 50-period SMA
3) common price during the 1/16-1/19 sessions
4) the RSI held above 40, showing maintenance of the bullish momentum. 

Now if price breaks below 1270, we might have a bearish outlook in the short-term, but the medium-term outlook as seen in the daily chart has turned bullish.

Gold Daily Chart 1/26

The daily chart shows a few support factors:

1) 1240-1255: 200-day SMA, two previous resistance pivots, 38.2% retracement.
2) 1220-1225: 200-period SMA in the 4H chart, Previous support/resistance pivot area, 50% retracement in the daily chart.
3) 1195-1200: psychological level, a rising trendline, 61.8% retracement.

If these support factors come into play, then gold remains bullish in 2015. A break below 1195 on the other hand will shift the precious metal from bullish to neutral mode with at least some more short-term bearish outlook.