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HCP Inc (HCP): Will Stock Disappoint in Q1 Earnings?

HCP Inc. HCP is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 9, before the opening bell.

Last quarter, this healthcare real estate investment trust (“REIT”) beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.56%. Over the trailing four quarters, the company exceeded estimates in all, resulting in an average positive earnings surprise of 2.27%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter funds from operations (“FFO”) per share is currently pegged at 69 cents.

Will HCP fail to report a positive surprise this quarter? Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

HCP’s growth is being hindered by cut-throat competition in its markets. Moreover, dependency on a limited number of operators and tenants that account for a large percentage of revenues increases the company’s risk.

In fact, though the company is expected to experience organic growth from a major part of its portfolio and benefit from accretive investments, results are anticipated to be tempered by the HCR ManorCare lease restructure. The company had one quarter of the HCR ManorCare rent cut which is anticipated to affect the upcoming results.

Overall, HCP’s performance during the quarter was inadequate to win analysts’ confidence. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate fell by a penny to 69 cents over the last 30 days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that HCP will beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at 69 cents. Therefore, Earnings ESP, which represents the percentage difference between the two, is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: HCP’s Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) further lowers the predictive power of ESP.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the broader Finance sector, of which REIT is a part, that you may want to consider instead, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post a positive surprise this quarter:

Garrison Capital Inc. GARS has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release first-quarter 2016 results on May 9.

Financial Engines, Inc. FNGN has an Earnings ESP of +6.67% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 10.

The Toronto-Dominion Bank TD has an Earnings ESP of +6.90% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report its second-quarter fiscal 2016 results on May 26.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

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