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SP 500: Waiting for a retracement

The US Index ended 2017 with an astonishing gain of almost 19.0% but in the last week of the year closed with a loss of nearly 0.7% and remains in a bullish phase since late August 2017.

Last week the index fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the week, in addition closed below the previous week low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

Stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market and is beginning to display a shy bearish momentum.

The SP 500 Index may be setting the stage for a pause after the strong rally witnessed since late August of 2017. This pause can be translated into a consolidation between 2,668.00 down to 2,609.51 before establishing another trend.

Expecting a downward move to a Fibonacci retracement at 2,609.51 (scenario 1) on the break below previous week low at 2,667.50 however a bounce from the Fibonacci retracement at 2,609.51 may set in motion another bullish run up to a weekly resistance at 2,2668.00 (scenario 2).