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Is Aimco (AIV) Set to Beat Estimates This Earnings Season?

Apartment Investment & Management Co. AIV – commonly known as Aimco – is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, 2016, after the market closes. Last quarter, this residential real estate investment trust (“REIT”) recorded an earnings miss by 1.69%.

Aimco has a mixed earnings surprise history. Over the trailing four quarters, the company has surpassed the Zacks Consensus estimate on one occasion, reported in-line numbers in two, and missed the mark in another. Overall, the company has delivered an average positive surprise of 0.50%. he first-quarter 2016, funds from operation (“FFO”) for the company is currently pegged at 55 cents.  

Let’s see how things are shaping up for Aimco prior to this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Aimco is likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat estimates, and Aimco has the right mix.

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP, which is the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of 58 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents, is +5.46%. This is a major indicator of a likely positive surprise.

Zacks Rank: Aimco carries a Zacks Rank #3. The combination of Aimco’s favorable Zacks Rank and positive ESP makes us confident of a positive surprise this season.

Conversely, we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

What's Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

Aimco’s portfolio-restructuring initiatives, conducted through property sales and reinvestment of proceeds in select apartment homes, as well as an improving balance sheet are expected to maintain its growth momentum in the first quarter. For first-quarter 2016, Aimco provided pro forma FFO per share guidance in a band of 52 cents to–56 cents. For first-quarter 2016, the company expects net operating income (“NOI”) change to come within 4.5–5.5% compared with the prior-year quarter.

On Jan 26, 2016, ushering in good news for shareholders, Aimco announced a sequential hike of 10% in its quarterly common dividend to $0.33 from $0.30, paid earlier. The new dividend was paid on Feb 29, 2016 to shareholders of record as on Feb 19.

Importantly, higher demand for apartment communities, backed by ‘echo-boomers,’ is likely to drive growth for the company. With a significant change in lifestyle and delayed life-cycle events, the average age of first-time homeownership has been extended.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post a positive surprise this quarter:

Essex Property Trust Inc. ESS has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report results on Apr 28.

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release results on May 2.

Vornado Realty Trust VNO has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

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TAUBMAN CENTERS (TCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
APARTMENT INVT (AIV): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ESSEX PPTY TR (ESS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
VORNADO RLTY TR (VNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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