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AUD/NZD - ST Bearish Swing Can Set up a MT/LT Buy

The 4H chart shows that AUD/NZD formed a price top in March and just confirmed the price top as resistance today (4/5).

AUD/NZD 4H Chart 4/5

(click to enlarge)

The fact that price retreated from 1.12 is a strong indication that AUD/NZD is bearish in at least the short-term. The support pivot at 1.1050 now looks vulnerable. 

There is downside risk towards at least the 1.0950-1.10 level area. This area involves a rising trendline and is a support/resistance pivot area. The bearish correction would also have completed an ABC pattern by then. If price does indeed stall around 1.095-1.10, we can anticipate a bullish attempt to follow.

AUD/NZD Weekly Chart 4/5

(click to enlarge)

Reversal Pattern in a Bearish Trend: The AUD/NZD has been bearish heading into 2015, but if we look at price action since 2014, we can spot an inverted head and shoulder forming. I am convinced by this price bottom formation because it is a big one, but the neckline around 1.1420 has to break and it hasn't done so yet. Furthermore, there is a falling trendline that is intact. 

Reward/Risk: So, there is definitely some risk that the prevailing trend continues. I think if price falls back to 1.09-1.10 area and is bought, then we should see a stronger test of the 1.14-1.1420 neckline in subsequent weeks. I think there is a good reward to risk here, because we can use 1.0850 as the line. Let's say we buy at 1.10 and have a stop at 1.0820. If the target is 1.1350, we essentially have a 2:1 reward to risk. This is the "undershot" target. An "overshot" target could be 1.15. The combination of these targets would give the trade close to a 3:1 R:R.