Morgan
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Morgan in Morgan Merrick - SMB Capital,

USD/JPY at Range Supports: Building into Position

For the past few days, I have been watching the USD/JPY and it is finally returning to range supports.  The larger picture is still bullish, making these supports possibly significant opportunities for intraday or swing trades long.

What makes these supports potentially intraday or swing-trading opportunities is because of two attractive features:

  1. The larger bullish picture
  2. The supports are in the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the bigger picture swing, a level that often acts as support in trending environments

These two factors give my support levels more potential and enable longer-term trades and targets.  This means the larger potential is there, and the support levels can act as higher probability entry areas.


The first support area I am interested in is the 101.30-101.60 area, which acted as a recent support, and if holds, will form a nice bounce.  However, price action may retest the range further and challenge range lows, entering my second support area in 100.50-101.00 range.  This support has even more potential because it is at more significant levels and if bounces, is more likely to maintain it’s momentum back to the highs.

Profit targets include the previous highs around the 104.00 area as a more conservative level, and larger swing highs in the 105.00-105.50 area for swing trades. 


The tricky part about entering trades like these when there is a sizable range to enter, you can get in too early and have to deal with noise, or you can miss it all together waiting for the best price.  One strategy I like to use is taking smaller lot sizes at each support level as they show signs of reversal.  Even if they retest again, they are small lots and not very painful.  As you are given better prices, you add more positions, and whenever the price action finally holds and bounces, you are in at several attractive areas.   I only implement this strategy in swing trading situations when the larger picture is in agreement.


If price action falls below the 100.00 area, I would cancel all long trade plans until I see new signs of support.  Price action below the 100.00 area is a major psychological level and indicates a break lower from our current range.


To learn more about the analysis and methodology used to provide this insight, visit http://smbu.us/smbwh