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How to View the Market Apart from "One Drive"

As analysts weigh different factors affecting the economy that are leaving futures flat, it’s possible that when we drill down into it the day to day forces at play are less important than the fundamental macro numbers at play. Looking at the market each day is a little bit like trying to assess the quality of an NFL team just based on one drive. The Detroit Lions could look great over a five minute stretch, but if you step back and look at their whole team, and their whole schedule, you can see that they are doomed. They are the equivalent of a penny stock. If you have a chubby quarterback earning millions of dollars who has no incentive to get in shape, and... okay, this metaphor is falling apart but you get the point.

The New England Patriots on the other hand are more like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) or Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.) They are consistent, they weather controversy, and they have strong leaders. They are set for the long haul. But even despite this, their performance over one drive might not be indicative of what they are capable of in the future.

Smart people are looking not at the latest “drive” for the market, but at the underlying fundamentals, and they aren’t quite liking what they see. Long term analysis is making people very nervous.