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Where to Fade Gold's Rebound?

Gold has been revived a downtrend since hitting a high on the year at 1307 towards the end of January. After retreating down to 1147, it has been consolidating. Let’s take a look at the chart and prepare for a breakout.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 3/17

(click to enlarge)

The 4H gold chart shows price falling since the high on the year at 1307. Here are the bearish technical developments:
1) Price has been trading under a falling trendline.
2) The 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs have turned to slope down and are in bearish alignment, with price trading under all of the SMAs at the moment.
3) The RSI has been tagging 30 or lower and has for the most part held below 60.

The RSI in the 4H chart is still under 60. If price breaks below 1147, there is downside risk towards the 1130 low on the year, with risk of extending further towards the 1100 area due to the fact that the prevailing trend since 2011 is still in play. 

If price pushes above 1185, gold would likely be in short-term bullish correction, but within the medium-term downtrend. In this scenario, we should monitor for resistance around 1190-1197. This area represent the lows from a previous consolidation and is likely reinforced by a falling trendline from 1307, especially if the 4H RSI stalls around 60 (which would be a sign the bears are still in charge).

A break above 1200 might shelve the bearish outlook for a medium-term sideways mode. Otherwise, if price can hold below 1190 or return below it after a brief crack, the bearish scenario will remain in play. Therefore, if the current rally approaches 1190, be ready for sellers.